Source: Visual Capitalist
By Maria Cooper
This map by Visual Capitalist depicts the average vertical land movement of the United States’ 28 largest cities between 2015 and 2021. The map uses data from a study titled “Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises” published in the scientific journal Nature this year (Ohenhen et al., 2025). Land subsidence is defined by the USGS as a “gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface”, which can occur as slight sinking across a large area or the abrupt formation of sinkholes. Vertical land movement (in millimetres per year) ranges from -5mm to +0.5mm across the cities studied. Notably, three cities – Jacksonville, Florida; San Jose, California; Memphis, Tennessee – experienced a small increase in elevation or remained the same. However, they are the obvious exceptions. Twenty-five out of the 28 cities included in the study are sinking, threatening 34 million Americans from New York to Las Vegas.
Some of the factors that cause land to sink, or subside, are the extraction of underground minerals (like oil and natural gas), infrastructure loading, earthquakes, natural sediment compaction, thawing permafrost, and sediment loading. At present, the most important cause of land subsidence across the world is unsustainable groundwater extraction. Groundwater is the world’s most extracted raw resource and is the primary water source for two billion people.
Groundwater is the water found in subsurface cracks and spaces within the earth. This water flows very slowly through aquifers: permeable geologic formations of soil, sand and rocks which have large connected spaces. Studies estimate global groundwater withdrawals provide 50% of drinking water, 40% of irrigation water, and 33% of industrial usage water (UN Water, 2018). The resource is especially important in regions where surface water is unavailable or unreliable. As groundwater aquifers are recharged very slowly, extracting water beyond the equilibrium yield can lead to overexploitation of groundwater resources, also termed “overdrafting”. Groundwater extraction causes an underground pressure change, often resulting in the collapse of soil as it moves to fill the spaces and cracks previously taken up by water, causing the ground to compact and sink/subside. This change is often irreversible.
Overdrafting has become a global issue due to massive increases in human demands for water, and it is the main driver of land subsidence: an estimated 80% of serious subsidence in the U.S. alone is caused by excessive groundwater extraction. Land subsidence due to unsustainable groundwater extraction is already having huge consequences: sinkholes alone cost an estimated $300 million per year. As there is no national tracking of damage costs the real figure is likely much higher. In lower-lying areas prone to flooding, the dual challenges of land subsidence and climate change are likely to exacerbate the cost of flooding: estimates of flood damage alone range from $180-496 billion in 2023.
The problem is not unique to the U.S. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is the world’s fastest sinking city at a rate of 1-15cm per year. By 2050, models suggest 95% of North Jakarta will be underwater. This is one of the reasons why the Indonesian government is in the process of building a new capital city on the island of Borneo, a $35 billion dollar megacity which is being constructed from scratch. The implications of this decision go beyond its economic cost: the project has drawn steep criticism from environmentalist and Indigenous rights groups who say it will further deplete Indonesia’s environment, degrade habitats for endangered species, and threaten Indigenous communities.
Climate change is bringing a new wave of challenges to sinking cities in coastal areas and deltas. Sea level rise and increases in extreme weather intensity and frequency will exacerbate coastal flooding, threatening more people, critical infrastructure, and the environment year on year. Governments and urban planners across the world must plan and prepare to deal with the impacts of sinking cities.
Sources:
Baisas, L. 28 big American cities are sinking. Popsci, May 8 (2025). https://www.popsci.com/environment/sinking-american-cities/
Birtles, B. Deep in the jungles of Borneo, Indonesia’s president has created a $45 billion headache for his successors. ABC News, March 6 (2024). https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-07/indonesias-new-capital-in-the-jungles-of-borneo-nusantara/103438328
Joint Economic Committee Democrats. Flooding Costs the U.S. Between $179.8 and $496.0 Billion Each Year. Online webpage, June 10 (2024). https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/democrats/2024/6/flooding-costs-the-u-s-between-179-8-and-496-0-billion-each-year#:~:text=The%20total%20annual%20economic%20burden%20of%20flooding%20in,equivalent%20to%201-2%25%20of%20U.S.%20GDP%20in%202023.
Lin, M. and Hidayat, R. Jakarta, the fastest-sinking city in the world. BBC, August 13 (2018). https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-44636934
Ohenhen, L.O., Zhai, G., Lucy, J. et al. Land subsidence risk to infrastructure in US metropolises. Nat Cities 2, 543–554 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s44284-025-00240-y
United States Geological Survey. Land Subsidence. Online webpage, March 2 (2019). https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/land-subsidence
Water, U. N. Groundwater overview: Making the invisible visible. Geneva, Switzerland: UN Water (2018).
Waugh, R. Land Subsidence Becomes a Growing Threat to Urban Infrastructure. Inframanage, March 11 (2025). https://inframanage.com/land-subsidence-becomes-a-growing-threat-to-urban-infrastructure/