In 2007, the U.S. total fertility rate was about 2.12 births per woman. By 2025, it had fallen to roughly 1.6 births per woman, a decline of about 25 percent that places the country below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, the rate generally needed to maintain population size without immigration. The United Nations currently expects U.S. fertility to remain near this level for much of the rest of the century.
Demographers often cite the 2008 financial crisis and its long-lasting economic effects, including rising housing costs and economic uncertainty, as factors that contributed to people delaying or having fewer children. Notably, 2008 was also the last year in which the U.S. fertility rate remained above two births per woman.
This trend is not unique to the United States. According to the United Nations, nearly two-thirds of the global population now lives in regions where fertility rates have fallen below replacement level.
Globally, the United Nations projects that the world population may peak around 2084 at roughly 10 billion people before growth slows, and many countries have already reached or passed their population peaks. The United States has so far avoided this slowdown in part because of immigration, though recent Census data show immigration fell by about 50 percent between July 2024 and July 2025, making 2025 one of the slowest years for population growth in the nation’s history.
In the United States, the Trump administration has made declining fertility a policy focus, including discussions about offering a $5,000 “baby bonus,” making childbirth free for families with private insurance, and tying federal transportation funding to states’ birth and marriage rates. However, fertility rates are not a direct measure of overall population well-being. Across many countries, fertility has declined as incomes and education levels have risen, women have gained greater access to jobs and family planning, child mortality has fallen, and the cost of raising children has increased.
During the post WWII Baby Boom, birth rates rose sharply as rapid economic growth coincided with families having more children, temporarily reversing longer term declines. Researchers note this surge reflected a unique mix of economic and social conditions that would be difficult to recreate today.
Because birth rates can change quickly and unexpectedly, declining fertility is not inherently positive or negative. In many cases, lower birth rates reflect fewer unintended births among younger women, highlighting how demographic change often reflects larger social and economic shifts.
Map: Visual Capitalist/World Bank
Sources: Our World in Data, Newsweek, The New York Times, International Monetary Fund